WORLD CRISIS WEEKLY WRAP-UP! (April 27 -- May 01, 2009)

  • US Banks Shutdown Tally got to  32!
  • Japan Keeps Rate 0.1%!
  • US FED Kept Monetary Policy Unchanged!
  • FED Is said to seek capital for 6 Banks !
  • Bank of America May Need  $70 b, after stress test!…
  • Global fiancial crisis to last another year!
  • Japan Retail Sales drop for a 7th month!!
  • Flu dampens world economy hopes!
  • Estados Unidos Declara Estado de Emergencia por Flu.
  • Russia may seek world bank loan.
  • México flu outbreak threatens to worsen economic woes! …
  • World stocks markets were shaken by flu!
  • China’s current account surplus to shrink. Nothin to worry about?
  • México declares state of emergency on flu deaths!
  • Swine flu spread from Mexico, prompting the World Health Organisation to declare a pandemic imminent.
  • Rafael Correa won Ecuador’s presidential election, Legislative majority. Lower oil prices, falling remittances from 2m abroad.
  • Obama 100 days as President,  high 68% approval. NYT/CBS 72% of population optimistic.  
  • S Africa’s ruling African National Congress won to elect ANC’s leader, Jacob Zuma, as president
  • N Korea again reprocessing fuel rods. Threatened to carry out nuclear and missile tests unless the United Nations apologised.
  • US GDP -6.1% 1st q. Previous - 6.3%. 3th q. fall = 1973-75 and 1981-82 recessions. 38% plunge bus. investment, steepest ever! 
  • US house prices still plunged by record rates in ten of the 20 cities covered by the S&P/Schiller index.
  • Car companies reported grim quarterly earnings numbersDaimler, HondaVolvo, Ford
  • EC wants more regulation for hedge and private-equity funds > €100m. Industry would be crippled: Fund Managers.
  • Japan Ind Prod. +1.6% March, -9.4% Feb. 1st 6 months, twice forecast, inventories cuts may now have run their course.
  • Britain’s GDP  -1.9% 1st q. Worst was manufacturing -6.2%. Services -1.2%.
  • S. Korea’s exports -17.8% March. Imports -35.8% = current-account surplus $6.65 b, from $3.56 b Feb.
  • Brazil cut rate 1% point, to 10.25%, New Zealand’cut rate 1/2 % point, to 2.5%, both record lows.


PREVIOUS WEEK (April 20 — April 25, 2009)

  • India held the second of five rounds of voting in its month-long general election.
  • UK Gov. said GDP -3.5% in 2009/10, worst since 1945. Top income-tax up to 50%. Public debt to double to 80% of GDP by 2013/14. 
  • UBS continued to shrink. Sold Pactual, a Brazilian investment bank, for $2.5 b, Credit Suisse profits, exceeded expectations.
  • BofA $4.2 b net profit, thanks to Merrill Lynch. Citigroup 1st profit in 6q. Wells Fargo earnings up too. But Morgan Stanley -$177m.
  • Japan’s 2nd-largest bank, Mizuhoworse than expected losses of about $5.9 b, after suffering falls in shareholdings,  loan losses.
  • IMF: Bank write-downs will hit $4.1 t, will need more capital to survive. World to shrink by 1.3% this year, 1st in 60 years.
  • Germany Ec. Sentiment 1st positive since 2007, worst is over? Critics said current conditions continued to slump.
  • Deflation threat continues. German Producer inflation down. UK retail inflation fell 0.4% , first since 1960.
  • Japan exports -45.6%. Imports -36.7% on a year earlier, which caused Japan’s monthly trade surplus to shrink.
  • Germany Producer Inflation fell by 0.5%, 1st since 2004, biggest since  2002. Investor confidence, up to 13 from -3.5 a month earlier.
  • UK Inflation fell to 2.9% in March from 3.2%. Retail Inflation -0.4% in the year to March.
  • Sweden cut rate by 1/2, to 0.5%. India to 4.75%, and -1/4 % point from its reverse repurchase rate, to 3.25%. Sixth in 6 months.
  • Australia inflation up 2.5% in 1st q. Prices+0.1% over previous quarter, weakest in 18 months!.
  • Venezuelan Bolivar devalued further.
  • G-20: Half ignore pledge to avoid protectionism!
  • Ireland Deflation sounds alarm for Europe!
  • European Services, Manufacturing contracted for 11th month!
  • U.K. Financial Bailout Totals Equal GDP!
  • ¡México se desplomará 3.7% en 2009!
  • América Latina Entrará en Recesión Este Año!
  • Malaysia Inflation Slows to an 11th month low!
  • World Crisis Losses May Hit $4.1 Trillion…WOW!
  • UK Deficit Largest Since WWII!
  • Bear Market Still in Its Infancy!
  • US Budget Deficit May Soar To 4 Times Last Years’!
  • S. African Banks Will Have a Very Tough Year!
  • México To Cut Rate To 5% As GDP Shrinks!
  • Emerging Markets Credit…..Worsens!
  • India Unexpectedly Cut Rate on Growth Worries!
  • US Firms: Pessimistic!
  • US Stocks Tumble on Concern Over Banks!
  • US Leading Index Shows Recovery Far Away!
  • Australia To Be Dragged Into Recession!
  • IMF Easier Lending Promps Bondholder Anxiety!
  • Indiana Jobless Reaches 10%, joins 7 other States!!…

WORLD ECONOMY WEEKLY AGENDA (May 04 -- May 08, 2009)

AHEAD OF  THE CURVE! 

UPCOMING THIS WEEK: POLITICS AND ECONOMY: —EVENTS THAT MAY MOVE GLOBAL FINANCIAL MARKETS (Update 1 of 3)— 

 (May 04– May 08,  2009)-Outstanding Events That May Move Global Financial Markets:

WORLD MARKETS—-Dollar Recovery, Possible?, —-Oil, Gasoline and Food Prices-NORTH AMÉRICA***United States: Pending Home Sales (04); Construction Spending (04); FED’s Lacker Speaks (04); ISM Services (05);FED’s Bernanke Testifies Before Joint Economic Committee (05); FED’s Stern Speaks (05); ABC Consumer Confidence (05); FED’s Yellen Speaks (06); Mortgage Applications (06); FED’s Stern Speaks (06);     Productivity (07); FED’s Evans Speaks (07); FED’s Bernanke Speaks (07); Consumer Credit (07); Unemployment Rate (08); Wholesale Inventories (08); FED’s Evans Speaks (08); ; FED’s Lacker Speaks (08);   México; Sector Manufacturero –Tendencia — (04); Confianza del Productor (04); Manufacturas por Estado (06); Dist: Electricidad por Estado (06); Confianza del Consumidor (07); Indicadores Compuestos; Coincidente y Adelantado (07);      Canada Unemployment Rate (08);   EUROPE;  ;   Britain:Consumer Confidence (05); PMI Services (06); Bank of England Rate Decision (07); Producer Inflation (08);     SwitzerlandInflation (07);Unemployment Rate (08); Producer Inflation (08);     Euro-Zone: Investor Confidence (04); PMI Manufacturing (04); Producer Inflation (05); PMI Services (06); PMI Composite (06); Retail Sales (06); ECB Rate Decision (07);  ; ; France: PMI Manufacturing (04); PMI Services (06);  ;  Germany:Retail Sales (04); PMI Manufacturing Index (04); PMI Services (06); Factory Orders (07); Trade Balance (08); Current Account (08); Industrial Production (08);      Italy: Budget Balance (04); ;  ASIA, PACIFIC: —JapanRate Decision Minutes (07);  ;Australia; Services (04); Rate Decision (05); Retail Sales (06); Trade Balance (06); Unemployment Rate (07); Reserve Bank Quarterly Monetary Policy Statement (08)    ; – New Zealand: Commodity Prices (05); Unemployment Rate (06);   —-: ;—-

OUTSTANDING— :

World: *****Global Impact of the Swine Flu (Pandemic ?)*****;United States: FED’s Bernanke Testifies Before Joint Economic Committee;   ***** Unemployment Rate*****; 19 US Largest Banks “Stress Tests” to be published (Thursday 07); Obama to Welcome  (Wednesday 06 & Thursday 07) Afganistan and Pakistan Presidents To Review Strategy vs Al-Qaeda and Taliban Terrorist Groups!;  AustraliaRBA Rate DecisionEuro-ZoneECB Rate DecisionUnited KingdomBank of England Rate DecisionGermany:Trade Balance; Industrial Production; AustraliaReserve Bank Quarterly Monetary Policy Statement; MéxicoIndicadores Compuestos: Coincidente y AdelantadoConfianza del Consumidor;South AfricaJacob Zuma Will Become President (Saturday May 09) 

—–º—–

SUNDAY 03: 

MONDAY 04:  

Euro-Zone: Investor Confidence 

Italy: Budget Balance 

TUESDAY 05: 

United StatesFED’s Bernanke Testifies Before Joint Economic Committee

Australia: RBA Rate Decision

WEDNESDAY 06: 

Euro-Zone: Retail Sales; President Obama to Welcome Presidents from Afghanistan and Pakistan To Review strategies Vs Taliban and Alqaeda Terrorist Groups (2 day meetings)!

THURSDAY 07: 

United States: Productivity: President Obama to Welcome Presidents from Afghanistan and Pakistan To Review strategies Vs Taliban and Alqaeda Terrorist Groups (2 day meetings)!

JapanBank of Japan Rate Decision Minutes

Euro-ZoneECB Rate Decision

United KingdomBank of England Rate Decision 

Australia: Unemployment Rate

MéxicoIndicadores Compuestos: Coincidente y Adelantado;Confianza del Consumidor

FRIDAY 08: 

United StatesUnemployment Rate

Germany: Trade Balance; Industrial Production

Canada: Unemployment Rate 

Switzerland: Unemployment Rate 

Australia: Reserve Bank Quarterly Monetary Policy Statement

New Zealand: Unemployment Rate

SATURDAY 09: 

South AfricaJacob Zuma Will Become President

SUNDAY 10: