WORLD ECONOMY THIS WEEK...GULP!...(Agenda Jun 01 -- Jun 05, 2009)

AHEAD OF  THE CURVE! 

UPCOMING THIS WEEK: POLITICS AND ECONOMY: ---EVENTS THAT MAY MOVE GLOBAL FINANCIAL MARKETS (Update 1 of 3)--- 

(Jun 01 -- June 05,  2009)---Outstanding Events That May Move Global Financial Markets:

WORLD MARKETS---------Dollar Recovery, Possible?, ----Oil, Gasoline and Food Prices---NORTH AMÉRICA: ***United States: Personal income (01); Personal Spending (01); Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (01); ISM Manufacturing (01); Construction Spending (01); Pending Home Sales (02); ABC Consumer Confidence (02); Mortgage Applications (03); ISM Services (03); Factory Orders (03);  FED's Dudley Speaks (04); Productivity & Labor Costs (04); FED's Bernanke Speaks (04); Unemployment Rate (05), FED's Rosengreen, Yellen Speak (05); Consumer Credit (05);  ;   México; Manufacturas: confianza, tendencia, pedidos (02); Manufacturas por Estado (03); Electricidad por estado  (03); ; Confianza del Consumidor (04); Indicadores Compuestos --Coincidente y Adelantado -- (05); ; ;  CanadaGDP (01); Raw Materials Prices (01);BoC Rate Decision (04); PMI Index (04); Unemployment Rate(05);    ;  EUROPE;;   Britain: Housing Survey (Sunday 31); House Prices (01); PMI Manufacturing (01); Net Consumer Credit (02); Mortgage Approvals (02); PMI Construction (02);Consumer Confidence (02); PMI Services (03); BoE Rate Decision (04); Producer Inflation (05);      ;  SwitzerlandGDP(02); Inflation (05); ;   Euro-ZonePMI Manufacturing (01);Unemployment Rate (02); PMI Services (03); PMI Composite (03); GDP (03); Household Consumption (03); Gross Fixed Capital (03); Producer Prices (03); Retail Sales (04); ECB Rate Decision (04);      ; France: PMI Manufacturing (01); PMI Services (03); Unemployment Rate (04);   ; Germany: PMI Manufacturing (01); PMI Services (03);   ;  Italy: ;  ---ASIA, PACIFIC: ---Japan: BoJ Kamezaki Speaks (03); Capital Spending (03);   ; Australia; Manufacturing (Sunday 31); Retail Sales (31); Commodity Index (01); Current Account (02); RBA Rate Decision (02); Services (02);  GDP (03); Trade Balance (04); Construction (04);     ; -- New Zealand:Commodity Prices (04);  ; ----: ;----

---OUTSTANDING--- :

SUNDAY 31:  

MONDAY 01:  

United States: ISM Manufacturing

Euro-Zone: PMI Manufacturing

Germany: PMI Manufacturing

United Kingdom: PMI Manufacturing

Canada: GDP

TUESDAY 02

United Kingdom: Consumer Confidence

Euro-Zone: Unemployment Rate

Switzerland: GDP

Australia: RBA Rate Decision

WEDNESDAY 03

United States: ISM Services

Euro-Zone: PMI Services; Household Consumption; Producer Prices; 

Japan: Capital Spending

Germany: PMI Services

United Kingdom: PMI Services 

Australia: GDP

THURSDAY 04: 

United States: Productivity

Euro-Zone: Retail Sales: ECB Rate Decision

United Kingdom: BoE Rate Decision

France: Unemployment Rate

Canada: BoC Rate Decision

México: Confianza del Consumidor

New Zealand: Commodity Prices

FRIDAY 05

United States: Unemployment Rate

United Kingdom: Producer Inflation

Canada: Unemployment Rate

México: Indicadores Compuestos; Coincidente y Adelantado

SATURDAY 06

SUNDAY 07


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WORLD CRISIS WEEKLY WRAP-UP!..(May 25 -- May 29, 2009)

WORLD CRISIS WEEKLY WRAP-UP (May 25 – May 29, 2009)

(Update 1 of 3)

INTRODUCTION:

 Markets and many world reknown economists are upbeat. Does the following 7-day events correspond to this perception?

GOOD NEWS:

UNITED STATES:  Consumer confidence experienced the biggest increase since April 2003. From 40.8 to 54.9.-- US existing homes sales + 2.9% April -----Dollar would hold up even after a US credit downgrade!--Recession may end next quarter, some analysts say! ---Did obama succeed in preventing a 2nd great depression? Some in his team think so. ASIA:  JapanIndia revival, some output data shows!..Scattered Illusion?

BAD NEWS:

WORLD: L'ONU reporte à fin juin un sommet sur la crise financière.. Gold jumps up to almost $1,000 dólares!---Some experts considered that Financial volatility (VIX) is more likely to reach 40 than to get to 20!...AMERICAUnited States: Existing homes sales -3.5% below 2008’s---- Home Prices -19.1% year to 1ST quarter---- 10-year notes: steepest 2-month loss since 2.----Durable orders near lowest in 13 years; jobless' 17 month----Dollar posts biggest monthly drop this year! -----FED's Chairman Bernanke bid to lift housing is being scuttled by rising rates-----New normal: 2% GDP growth, 8% unemployment rate----- Economy at risk of double-dip recession!------Recovery will be more slowly than expected; Obama’s government officials said!-------Canada's economy to shrink more than forecast; Deficits to expand!...México: ¡Cae 5.6% actividad económica (IGAE)! Mexican peso weakens after unemployment jumps more than expected!-----.EUROPELe chômage pourrait toucher 239 millions;  ----- Euro-Zone: l'exclusion de certains membres s'impose!.... Germany: Allemagne; L'inflation est revenue à zero! Business sentiment up from 83.7 to 84.2. GDP -3.8% 1st quarter on exports, business spending fell though consumption +0.5% from previous quarter. Poland kept rate at 3.75% but reduced cash reserves from banks, from 3.5% to 3%.... Must cut spending as deficit widens "horribly"!... Hungary kept rate at 9.5%, but forint revival may allow cuts later on.------France: le nombre de chômeurs en hausse!----United Kingdom's Prime Minister Brown goes full circle as debt raises ratingdo...ASIA: Japon, les suicides se multiplient à cause de la crise!----Retail sales fall for 8th month on job woes!... India credit rating may come under pressure over budget!------China: Yuan halting gains to aid exports?------ AFRICASouth Africa in recession 1st since 1992, -6.4% 1st quarter, annualised. Mining worst since 1960.

GEO-POLITICS, MARKETS AND NATURAL DISASTERS:

La Chine a du mal à contrôller son allié Nord-Corée------North Korea was condemned after conducting a nuclear test, its second since 2006. - Fires 6th missile this week-----Iran: Ahmadinejad campaign site...attacked!---- ----Grippe a: votre attention, s'il vous plaît! UK swine flu toll is really 30,000, says leading scientist----- Visteon, a car-parts supplier, filed for bankruptcy----- British Airways followed Air France-KLM, with a net loss for its fiscal year----- GM finally in Bankruptcy (June). Hearings on Fiat’s stake in Chrysler, to speed exit from bankruptcy---- Tylenol: drugmakers asked to limit doses, toughen ...Lowest Liborhides "exceptionally wide" bank spreads!-----

CONCLUSION:

Pessimistic news continued to overwhelm optimistic ones.----Global Industries (cars, airlines, etc) are in for a tough ride!-----North Korea missiles and nuclear dangerous games as well as the Swine Flu (affecting worldwide tourism and the airlines industry) are not helping world economy either!---- Will this be a short-lived bull market?....What do you think?