Created in 2007 to give you a timely warning about the causes and consequences of the next global financial crisis since 1997, through the exposition of fundamental events analysis. ---(Tuesday Through Thursday Updates: 3 p.m. México City; 4 p.m. NY)---


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TODAY'S "TOP TEN " CRISIS EVENTS
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samedi, janvier 31, 2009

6 BANK FAILURES + 25 LAST YEAR!

Bloomberg.com:
Worldwide
: "Florida, Maryland, Utah Banks Shut as Financial Crisis Deepens"

STIGLITZ VS "BAD BANK" PLAN, GURRIA FOR IT!

Bloomberg.com:
Worldwide
: "Stiglitz Criticizes Bad Bank Plan as Swapping ‘Cash for Trash’"

WORLD CRISIS: --WEEKLY WRAP-UP--

MY SNAPSHOT,  PLAIN-LANGUAGE ASSESSMENT OF LAST WEEK’S OUTSTANDING ECONOMIC EVENTS SHAPING OUR WORLD:

SUMMARY:

  1. US House approved Obama’s $819 b stimulus package. No Republicans voted for it. Now the Senate’s turn.  
  2. Iran’s Ahmadinejad, responded to Mr Obama extending hand by angrily calling for an apology.  
  3. World Economic Forum began in Davos Switzerland in a, Depressing global crisis environment. Russia and China attacked the West, particularly the US for all the trouble.
  4. Iceland’s government became the first to fallas a result of the financial crash. Early election in May. 
  5. Russia won’t deploy any missiles in Kaliningrad? Hopes Obama to delay missiles in Poland, Czech Rep.
  6. Bolivia backed a new (President Morales’) polemic constitution but the majority in 4 rich “autonomous” departments rejected it. Political conflict will continue!    
  7. The International Labor Organization  2009 forecast considered the unemployed higher by 18m than in 2007, “worst-case scenario” 50m more. 
  8. IMF-09 world worst 1945. GDP 0.5%, from 2.2% last Nov.US -1.6%, Euro -2%, Japan -2.6%.UK-2.8%.
  9. Banking System troubles continued:BOFA gov. aid. Nomura’s qly loss $3.7 b biggest since 2001 on Lehman Europe, Asia, Iceland,Madoff. Santander to recompense $1.8 b. 1º on Maddoff. ING’s CEO resigned.qly loss gov aid.
  10. FED kept rates at 0-0.25%. Will buy long-term government bonds if necessary.
  11. US Bad economic news continued: January January Consumer Confidence fell to 37.7, new low since 1967. House Prices also fell -18.2% year-to-Nov, Existing Home Sales+6.5% Dec. (Good News?). 
  12. Britain’s Growth fell by 1.5% 4th quarter of 2008, preliminary estimate. It was 1.8% lower than a year earlier. 
  13. United States Growth fell and Japan’s Industrial Production slumped.

To know more about these subjects please refer to the corresponding articles posted on this “blog”

The purpose of this basic report is simply to reassert the relevance of  what you have already witnessed during the last 5 days and to inform you of anything that you could have missed. Of course, I’ll be always grateful for letting me know of those crisis-related happenings I  failed to notice myself.

Last Week:

  1. USA 44th President swore in!
  2. Israel, Hamas ceasefire held up!
  3. China growth rate fell to 6.8% in the year to the 4th  quarter,after attaining 9%  in the 3th q.  It was the slowest GDP growth in 7 years.  It grew 9% 2008 and 13% in 2007 when it became the 3th largest world economy. Some say China is already in recession. Big risk of workers protests getting out of control!
  4. Spain, Portugal ratings were downgraded by S&P’s as previously was Greece’s.
  5. Brazil, Canada and Hungary were the latest to join the club of  interest rate cutting nations to fight their economic slowdowns.
  6. Banking troubles continued,  with Bank of America (1st quarterly loss in 17 years), Citigroup (4th quarter net loss of 8.3 b), UK Banking System to get more aid from Government. RBS falling 67% on losses. Denmark and Irish Banks problems continued.
  7. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed below the 8,000 point for the first time since last November.
  8. US Consumer Inflation -0.7% Dec, -1.7% Nov. Annual +0.1%.  Core was still +1.8%.
  9. The European Commission 2009 Economic forecasts: Euro Zone; -1.9%.  Germany -2.3%, France -1.8%, Spain & Italy -2%. Ireland. -5%. Euro Budget Deficit to be  4% of GDP. Unemployment Rate to get to 10% in 2010.
  10. United Kingdom Unemployment Rate was 6.1% in the 3 mths to Nov,  the previous 3 months  5.7%. Unemployment benefit claims were the highest since 1991. Consumer Inflation slowed  down  from 4.1% to 3.1% in December.

CONCLUSSION: 

It was an awful week which continued to reflect the severity of this Global Crisis. China’s depressing GDP economic data (worse than expected) may mean It is already in a recession (please read this blog’s corresponding article). In our globalised world, we can expect a very negative economic feedback to many, many countries as a side-effect of this nation’s slowdown. Last but not least, the sad welcome to Barack Obama from the financial markets (the inauguration day) does not show any approaching general confidence. The US stocks slumped dramatically that session and the DJIA closed below the 8,000 points for the 1st time since late november.   

US ECONOMY MAY DETERIORATE FURTHER!

Bloomberg.com:
Worldwide
: "U.S. Economy May Keep Sliding After Shrinking Most Since 1982"

vendredi, janvier 30, 2009

MEXICAN PESO FALL STUNS EVERYONE!

Bloomberg.com:
Latin America
: "Mexico’s Peso Stuns UBS With Biggest Drop Since 1995 (Update3)"

MÉXICO: PRÓXIMA SEMANA ¿QUÉ PASARÁ?

MERCADOS MEXICANOS-Atentos a cifras econ�micas en EEUU
| Negocios
| Reuters
: "MERCADOS MEXICANOS-Atentos a cifras econ�micas en EEUU"

MÉXICO: ¿CÓMO VA HOY?..Viernes, enero 30, 2009

MERCADOS MEXICANOS-�Qu�dicen los analistas? 30 de enero
| Titulares
| Reuters
: "MERCADOS MEXICANOS-�Qu�dicen los analistas? 30 de enero"

STRONG POUND...WEAK EURO?....WHAT?

Bloomberg.com:
Currencies
: "Pound Posts Record Monthly Gain Against Euro as Mortgages Rise"

RUBLE IN TROUBLE!

Bloomberg.com:
Currencies
: "Russia Vows to Defend Ruble as Speculators Push to Break Target"

US ECONOMY FALLS FASTEST SINCE 1982!

Bloomberg.com:
Worldwide
: "U.S. Economy: GDP Shrinks at Fastest Pace Since 1982 (Update1)"

ASIA CURRENCY POOL TO DEFEND CURRENCIES!..WHAT?

Bloomberg.com:
Economy
: "Asian Ministers Said to Plan February Meeting on Currency Pool"

EUROPE INFLATION FALLS, UNEMPLOYMENT UP!...DEFLATION RISK UP TOO?

Bloomberg.com:
Economy
: "European Inflation Rate Falls, Unemployment Increases (Update1)"

ZONE EURO: LE CHÔMAGE ATTEINT 8%!

Zone euro : le ch�mage atteint 8 % en d�cembre - Economie - Le Monde.fr: "Zone euro : le ch�mage atteint 8 % en d�cembre"

RUBLE REJECTION AFTER PUTIN SPEECH!

Bloomberg.com:
Currencies
: "Investors Say Nyet to Putin’s Ruble After ‘Absurd’ Davos Speech"

JAPAN'S WORST RECESSION?..PRODUCTION SLUMPS, JOBLESS UP!

Bloomberg.com:
Worldwide
: "Japan Heads for Worst Postwar Slump as Output Tumbles (Update2)"

jeudi, janvier 29, 2009

EURO IN DANGER!..."SOROS"

Bloomberg.com:
Currencies
: "Soros Says Euro in Danger If EU Fails to Act, Standard Reports"

UN NOUVEAU BRETTON-WOODS? NO, WE CAN'T!

D�CHIFFRAGES - Blog LeMonde.fr: "Un nouveau Bretton-Woods ? No, we can’t!"

EURO: LA GRÈCE: TALON D'ACHILLE?

La Gr�ce est le talon d'Achille de la zone euro - L'�conomie en crise - Le Monde.fr: "La Gr�ce est le talon d'Achille de la zone euro"

¿LATINOAMÉRICA, VS CAPITALISMO?..MAYBE SO!

Cuatro l�deres sudamericanos arremeten contra capitalismo
| Titulares
| Reuters
: "Cuatro l�deres sudamericanos arremeten contra capitalismo"

¿LATINOAMÉRICA VS CAPITALISMO?...KIND OF!

Cuatro l�deres sudamericanos arremeten contra capitalismo
| Titulares
| Reuters
: "Cuatro l�deres sudamericanos arremeten contra capitalismo"

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Analyses Back-up: Check: PESO, EURO; JAPAN, YEN; CHINA, YUAN; STERLING, U.K.; DOLLAR, UNITED STATES

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