THE WEEKLY GLOBAL INVESTOR: 05/04/2009

vendredi, avril 10, 2009

jeudi, avril 09, 2009

GERMANY TO NATIONALIZE HYPO REAL ESTATE BANK!

German government moves to nationalize bank - CNN.com: "German government moves to nationalize bank"

EUROPE: LES PLANS DE RELANCE...SUFFISANTS?....VRAIMENT?

Les plans de relance actuels sont suffisants, dit Trichet - Le Monde.fr: "Les plans de relance actuels sont suffisants, dit Trichet"

FEW US BANKS TO NEED MORE BAILOUTS!...REALLY?

Hoenig Says Few Big U.S. Banks to Need More Bailouts (Update1) - Bloomberg.com: "Hoenig Says Few Big U.S. Banks to Need More Bailouts (Update1)"

JAPAN TO UNVEIL BIG SPENDING PLANS!...RISKY?

Japan’s Aso to Unveil 15.4 Trillion Yen Stimulus Plan (Update2) - Bloomberg.com: "Japan’s Aso to Unveil 15.4 Trillion Yen Stimulus Plan (Update2)"

LE JAPON CONNAÎTRA LA PIRE RÉCESSION DES PAYS INDUSTRIALISÉS!

En 2009, le Japon conna�tra la pire r�cession des pays industrialis�s - L'�conomie en crise - Le Monde.fr: "En 2009, le Japon conna�tra la pire r�cession des pays industrialis�s"

RUSSIA'S BANKS' BAD LOANS MAY QUADRUPLE AS WORST CRISIS SINCE 1998 DEBT DEFAULT WORSENS!

Russia Banks’ Bad Loans May Reach $70 Billion as Crisis Deepens - Bloomberg.com: "Russia Banks’ Bad Loans May Reach $70 Billion as Crisis Deepens"

mercredi, avril 08, 2009

US FED: PESSIMISTIC!

Fed Saw Downside Risks Predominating at March Meeting (Update2) - Bloomberg.com: "Fed Saw Downside Risks Predominating at March Meeting (Update2)"

L'ÉCONOMIE AMÉRICAINE A CONTINUÉ DE SE DÉTÉRIORER!

Selon la Fed, l'�conomie am�ricaine a continu�de se d�t�riorer - Le Monde.fr: "Selon la Fed, l'�conomie am�ricaine a continu�de se d�t�riorer"

MÉXICO: ¿CÓMO VA HOY?....Miércoles, abril 08, 2009!

MERCADOS MEXICANOS-�Qu�dicen los analistas? 8 de abril
| Titulares
| Reuters: "MERCADOS MEXICANOS-�Qu�dicen los analistas? 8 de abril"

BANKS TAKEOVERS DEEPENED GLOBAL CRISIS!...YES!

Roubini Says Bank Takeovers Deepened Financial Market Crisis - Bloomberg.com: "Roubini Says Bank Takeovers Deepened Financial Market Crisis"

UNIÓN EUROPEA EN RECESIÓN!... PIB PEOR DE LO ESPERADO!

UE entra en recesi�n, cae PIB 1.5% IV-08, peor de lo esperado - Invertia: "UE entra en recesi�n, cae PIB 1.5% IV-08, peor de lo esperado"

MÉXICO: ¡INFLACIÓN CON SEÑALES MIXTAS!

Inflaci�n anual M�xico se desacelera en marzo - Invertia: "Inflaci�n anual M�xico se desacelera en marzo"

DON'T MISTAKE SLOWER ECONOMIC SLIDE FOR REBOUND!

Rosenberg Says Don’t Mistake Slower Economic Slide for Rebound - Bloomberg.com: "Rosenberg Says Don’t Mistake Slower Economic Slide for Rebound"

GERMAN EXPORTS FELL FOR A 5th MONTH PUSHING IT DEEPER INTO RECESSION!

German Exports Fell For a Fifth Month in February (Update1) - Bloomberg.com: "German Exports Fell For a Fifth Month in February (Update1)"

EMERGING MARKETS: A WARNING SIGN?

Commodity surge aids emerging market recovery - Apr. 6, 2009: "Emerging victorious"

L'AGENDE ÉCONOMIQUE MONDIALE: À SUIVRE CETTE SEMAINE! (06-10/Avril/2009)

LaTribune.fr - A suivre cette semaine, la production industrielle en Europe: "A suivre cette semaine, la production industrielle en Europe"

LES EXPORTATIONS ALLEMANDS RECULENT DE 23% EN FÉVRIER!

LaTribune.fr - Les exportations allemandes reculent de 23% en f�vrier: "Les exportations allemandes reculent de 23% en f�vrier"

L'ÉCONOMIE IRLANDAISE DEVRAIT SE CONTRACTER DE 8% EN 2009!

L'�conomie irlandaise devrait se contracter de 8 % en 2009 - Europe - Le Monde.fr: "L'�conomie irlandaise devrait se contracter de 8 % en 2009"

UK GROWTH (GDP) FAAALLS!..RECESSION RESEMBLES 1979!

U.K. GDP Drops 1.5% as Recession Resembles 1979, Niesr Says - Bloomberg.com: "U.K. GDP Drops 1.5% as Recession Resembles 1979, Niesr Says"

mardi, avril 07, 2009

L'ÉCONOMIE DE LA ZONE EURO S'EST CONTRACTÉE PLUS QUE PRÉVU!

L'�conomie de la zone euro s'est contract�e plus que pr�vu - Economie - Le Monde.fr: "L'�conomie de la zone euro s'est contract�e plus que pr�vu"

MÉXICO: ¿CÓMO VA HOY?...Martes, abril 07, 2009

MERCADOS MEXICANOS-�Qu�dicen los analistas? 7 de abril
| Titulares
| Reuters: "MERCADOS MEXICANOS-�Qu�dicen los analistas? 7 de abril"

US BUSINESS CONFIDENCE LOWEST IN 7 YEARS!

Confidence Among U.S. Company Chiefs Sank Further (Update1) - Bloomberg.com: "Confidence Among U.S. Company Chiefs Sank Further (Update1)"

MÉXICO ¿EN PROFUNDA RECESIÓN?

Entra M�xico en recesi�n profunda | El Economista online: "Entra M�xico en recesi�n profunda"

APRÈS L'AVOIR LONGTEMPS OCCULTÉ, LE JAPON DÉCOUVRE LE PHÉNOMÈNE DE PAUVRETÉ!

Apr�s l'avoir longtemps occult�, le Japon d�couvre le ph�nom�ne de pauvret�- L'�conomie en crise - Le Monde.fr: "Apr�s l'avoir longtemps occult�, le Japon d�couvre le ph�nom�ne de pauvret�"

US FED AGREES ON SWAP LINES FOR EUROS, YEN, POUNDS!

Fed Agrees on Swap Lines to Access Euros, Yen, Pounds (Update2) - Bloomberg.com: "Fed Agrees on Swap Lines to Access Euros, Yen, Pounds (Update2)"

JAPAN: FINDING CASH FOR STIMULUS A HARD TASK?

Yosano Says Finding Cash for Stimulus Is ‘Major Task’ (Update1) - Bloomberg.com: "Yosano Says Finding Cash for Stimulus Is ‘Major Task’ (Update1)"

US STOCKS: A "BEAR MARKET" RALLY?

Soros Calls Gain in U.S. Stocks a ‘Bear-Market Rally’ (Update1) - Bloomberg.com: "Soros Calls Gain in U.S. Stocks a ‘Bear-Market Rally’ (Update1)"

JAPAN KEEPS RATE; WIDENS RANGE OF COLLATERAL FOR LOANS!

Bank of Japan Widens Range of Collateral for Loans (Update1) - Bloomberg.com: "Bank of Japan Widens Range of Collateral for Loans (Update1)"

AUSTRALIA CUTS RATE TO 49-YEAR-LOW 3%!

Australia’s Central Bank Cuts Rate to 49-Year-Low 3% (Update2) - Bloomberg.com: "Australia’s Central Bank Cuts Rate to 49-Year-Low 3% (Update2)"

IRELAND MAY FACE "GRAVE" BUDGET CRISIS!

Ireland May Raise Taxes, Cut Spending to Avert ‘Grave Crisis’ - Bloomberg.com: "Ireland May Raise Taxes, Cut Spending to Avert ‘Grave Crisis’"

lundi, avril 06, 2009

BRAZIL: 1st RECESSION IN 17 YEARS?

Brazil GDP May Shrink First Time in 17 Years in 2009 (Update2) - Bloomberg.com: "Brazil GDP May Shrink First Time in 17 Years in 2009 (Update2)"

US FED'S BERNANKE:..OVER-OPTIMISTIC?

Bernanke ‘Green Shoots’ May Signal False Spring Amid Job Losses - Bloomberg.com: "Bernanke ‘Green Shoots’ May Signal False Spring Amid Job Losses"

US LABOR MARKET TO DETERIORATE FURTHER!

U.S. Jobs Index Dropped to 90.1 in March, Indicating More Cuts - Bloomberg.com: "U.S. Jobs Index Dropped to 90.1 in March, Indicating More Cuts"

US STOCKS FALL ON BANKING CONCERN! (2009, April 06)

U.S. Stocks Drop on Banking Concern, Collapse of Sun Takeover - Bloomberg.com: "U.S. Stocks Drop on Banking Concern, Collapse of Sun Takeover"

LE FMI FAVORABLE À UNE ADOPTION DE L'EURO EN EUROPE DE L'EST!

Le FMI favorable �une adoption de l'euro en Europe de l'Est - Economie - Le Monde.fr: "Le FMI favorable �une adoption de l'euro en Europe de l'Est"

MÉXICO: ¿CÓMO VA HOY?...Lunes, abril 06, 2009

MERCADOS MEXICANOS-�Qu�dicen los analistas? 6 de abril
| Titulares
| Reuters: "MERCADOS MEXICANOS-�Qu�dicen los analistas? 6 de abril"

US TOXIC-ASSET PLAN MAY BLUNT APPETITE FOR JUNK BONDS!

Geithner Plan May Blunt Appetite for Junk Bonds, Peters Says - Bloomberg.com: "Geithner Plan May Blunt Appetite for Junk Bonds, Peters Says"

ESTADOS UNIDOS: ¿QUÉ VA A PASAR?..(Agenda abril 06 -- abril 10, 2009)

Acciones EEUU pueden subir pr�xima semana por optimismo inversor
| Negocios
| Reuters: "Acciones EEUU pueden subir pr�xima semana por optimismo inversor"

MÉXICO: ¿QUÉ VA A PASAR?...(Agenda abril 06 -- abril 10, 2009)

MERCADOS MEXICANOS-Ver�n sesiones tranquilas por Semana Santa
| Negocios
| Reuters: "MERCADOS MEXICANOS-Ver�n sesiones tranquilas por Semana Santa"

AMÉRICA LATINA ESTA SEMANA...(abril 06 -- abril 10, 2009)

Mercados de A. Latina, a la expectativa de tasas de Per�y Chile
| Titulares
| Reuters: "Mercados de A. Latina, a la expectativa de tasas de Per�y Chile"

FMI: REPRISE MONDIALE AU PREMIER SEMESTRE 2010!...REALLY?

Le FMI compte sur la reprise au premier semestre 2010 - L'�conomie en crise - Le Monde.fr: "Le FMI compte sur la reprise au premier semestre 2010"

JAPAN STIMULUS PACKAGE TO EXCEED 2%!...REALLY?

Aso Wants Japan Stimulus Package to Exceed 2% of GDP (Update2) - Bloomberg.com: "Aso Wants Japan Stimulus Package to Exceed 2% of GDP (Update2)"

EUROPE PRODUCER PRICES FALL HIGHLIGHT DEFLATION RISK!

European February Producer Prices Fall More Than Expected - Bloomberg.com: "European February Producer Prices Fall More Than Expected"

UK: A HUGE GROWTH FORECAST ERROR?

FT.com / UK - Darling set to admit forecast error: "Darling set to admit forecast error"

S&P 500 STEEPEST RALLY SINCE 1938 MAY DISSIPATE!...WHAT?

S&P 500 Can’t See Enough Money in Final Quarter to Feed Rally - Bloomberg.com: "S&P 500 Can’t See Enough Money in Final Quarter to Feed Rally"

dimanche, avril 05, 2009

WORLD CRISIS' WEEKLY WRAP-UP: (March 30 -- April 03)

WORLD CRISIS WEEKLY WRAP-UP!
(Last Week.... March 30 -- April 03)

G-20 Background.
What to expect from last week's Summit. The Markets behaved great, but the world economy is deteriorating very fast!

-----Is it possible that the worst of this crisis be over? Financial Markets have been mostly positive for the past 4 weeks, with the lower volatility index underlining all the optimism (see the story below please). I think however that the damage is done and a recovery is still very far from our global regulators reach, notwithstanding the fiscal and monetary expansionary steps they have taken! -----What is your conclusion from last week's selected news (below)?

-----(UPDATE 1 OF 3)-----
G-20: NEW WORLD ORDER?..LESSER ROLE FOR U.S., MARKETS?
IMF: $I TRILLION FOR GLOBAL RESCUES! ...WOW!
US WEEKLY JOBLESS UP TO HIGHEST SINCE 1982!
CHINA MANUFACTURING EXPANDS!...WEIRD?
EUROPE CUTS RATE...AND DISAPPOINTS!
G-20: RÉGULATION DE LA FINANCE!
UK HOUSE PRICES UP!...WEIRD?
US MANUFACTURING SHRINKS AT SLOWER PACE!
GLOBAL ECONOMIC SLIDE MAY BE SUBSIDING!...REALLY?
OBAMA: BANKRUPTCY FOR GM, CHRYSLER...BEST OPTION!
EUROPE MANUFACTURING DOWN, DOWN, DOWN!
EUROPE UNEMPLOYMENT UP, UP, UP!
ASIA ECONOMY DEEPENS AS JAPAN TANKAN TUMBLES!
MONDE: RISQUE DE DÉFLATION!
MEXICO PREPARED TO TAKE 40 B CREDIT LINE FROM IMF!...
GERMAN UNEMPLOYMENT UP FOR 5TH MONTH!
US FINANCIAL RESCUE APPROACHES ITS GDP LEVEL!...WH...
RUSSIA TO CONTRACT 4.5% THIS YEAR!
AUSTRALIA'S RECESSION THIS YEAR?
JAPAN JOBLESS JUMPS TO 3-YEAR HIGH!
IRELAND LOSSES RATING, JOINS SPAIN, PORTUGAL, GREECE EURO-ZONE DOWNGRADES!
SOME US BANKS NEED "LARGE AMOUNTS" OF AID!
G-20: ¿MERCADOS INOCENTES?
THE DOLLAR IS HERE TO STAY!...YES!
UNEMPLOYMENT: DOUBLE DIGIT NUMBERS LOOM!
G20 IN LONDON FOR SUMMIT. WORLD RECESSION AND REFORMOF THE IMF.

MEXICO 1st IN IMF OFFER OF A FLEXIBLE CREDIT LINE OF UP TO $47 BILLION (NO STRINGS ATTACHED).
IADB AGREED TO INCREASE MORE CAPITAL TO EXPAND LENDING. IT CAN ONLY LEND $8 B A YEAR.
UNIVERSITY OF TORONTO SAID 1,300 GOV COMPUTERS IN 103 COUNTRIES WITH SPYWARE. CHINA TO BLAME.
HUNGARY’S SOCIALISTS PICKED GORDON BAJNAI, TO REPLACE FERENC GYURCSANY AS PRIME MINISTER.
NETANYAHU ISRAEL’S PRIME MINISTER IN A COALITION.
GM, CHRYSLER INADEQUATE PLANS. OBAMA: BANKRUPTCY BEST. GM GIVEN 60 DAYS.
BARCLAYS DOES NOT NEED THE BRITISH ASSET-PROTECTION SCHEME.
UK RESCUE OF DUNFERMLINE BUILDING SOCIETY, A SCOTTISH MUTUAL LENDER.
SPAIN $12 B RESCUED CAJA CASTILLA LA MANCHA. 1ST TO BE BAILED OUT IN 16 YEARS. MORE TO COME.
SWISS RE, WORLD’S 2ND-BIGGEST REINSURER, TO CUT 10% OF ITS GLOBAL WORKFORCE.
OECD GRIM OUTLOOK: 30 COUNTRIES'S GDP's -4.3% THIS YEAR.US -4%, EURO AREA’S -4.1%, JAPAN’S -6.6%.
WORLD BANK UPDATED FORECAST FOR THE WORLD ECONOMY,TO SHRINK BY 1.7% IN 2009.
HOUSING OK?: US PENDING HOME-SALES +2.1% IN FEB (MTHLY). UK HOUSE PRICES + 0.9% MARCH $217,000.
MIXED JAPAN. TANKAN LARGE MANUFACTURERS SENTIMENT -58, LOWEST IN HISTORY SINCE 1974.
US FED BOUGHT $6 B OF 3 TO 4 YEAR TREASURIES ON APRIL 1ST.PART OF PLANS TO BUY OVER $300 B TO LOWER RATES.
SK EXPORTS -21.2% IN MARCH Y-ON-Y. TO CHINA, MAIN MARKET, -17.2%, 20 DAYS OF MARCH.IMPORTS -36%.
BRAZIL’S INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT PLUMMETS -17% LOWER IN FEB THAN A YEAR EARLIER.
INDIA’S EXPORTS -21.7% Y-TO-FEB. IMPORTS -23%, TRADE DEFICIT NARROWED, TO $4.9 B.

US OBAMA TESTED BY NORTH KOREA MISSILE LAUNCH!

U.S. Will Ask for Tougher UN Sanctions on North Korea (Update1) - Bloomberg.com: "U.S. Will Ask for Tougher UN Sanctions on North Korea (Update1)"

WORLD ECONOMY THIS WEEK...GULP (Agenda April 06--April 10, 2009)

AHEAD OF THE CURVE!

UPCOMING THIS WEEK: POLITICS AND ECONOMY: ---EVENTS THAT MAY MOVE GLOBAL FINANCIAL MARKETS(Update 1 of 3)---

(April 06 -- April 10, 2009)---Outstanding Events That May Move Global Financial Markets:

WORLD MARKETS----Dollar Recovery, Possible?, ----Oil, Gasoline and Food Prices---NORTH AMÉRICA: ***United States: Consumer Credit (06); ABC Consumer Confidence (07); Mortgage Applications (08); Wholesale Inventories (08); FED FOMC Meeting Minutes (08); Trade Balance (09); Imports Inflation (09); Monthly Budget Statement (10); ; ; México: Confianza del Consumidor (06); Indicadores Compuestos: Coincidente y Adelantado (07); Balanza Comercial (08); ; Canada: Purchasing Managers Index (06); Unemployment Rate (09); Trade Balance (09) ; -----EUROPE;; Britain: Industrial Production (06); Consumer Confidence (07); GDP Estimate (07); Industrial Production (07); Producer Inflation (09); BOE Rate Decision (09); ; ; Switzerland: Unemployment Rate (09); ; ; Euro-Zone: Investor Confidence (06); Producer Inflation (06); Retail Sales (06); GDP (07); Household Consumption (07);ECB Monthly Report (09); ; France: Inflation (10); Industrial Production (10); ; Germany: Current Account (08); Trade Balance (08); Exports (08); Inflation (09); Industrial Production (09); Producer Inflation (10); ; Italy: Industrial Production (09); ;---ASIA, PACIFIC: ---Japan: BOJ Regular Policy Board Meeting (Sunday 05); BOJ Rate Decision (06); Leading Index (06); Coincident Index (06); Current Account (07); Trade Balance (07); Economic Watchers Survey, Current and Outlook (08); Machine Orders (08); Foreign Buying. Selling of Japan's Stocks & Bonds (07); BOJ Monthly Report (08); BOJ Rate Minutes (09); Bank Lending (09); ; ;Australia; RBA Rate Decision (07); Consumer Confidence (08); Unemployment Rate (09); ; -- New Zealand: Manufacturing Index (09); ; ; ----: ;----

---OUTSTANDING--- :

United States: FOMC Meeting Minutes; Trade Balance; Monthly Budget Statement; México: Indicadores Compuesto y Adelantado; United Kingdom: BOE Rate Decision; GDP Estimate; Euro-Zone: GDP; ECB Monthly Report;Germany; Trade Balance; Industrial Production; Japan;BOJ Rate Decision; Australia: RBA Rate Decision

SUNDAY 05:

MONDAY 06:

United States: Consumer Credit;

Japan: Rate Decision; Leading & Coincident Index

Euro-Zone: Investor Confidence;

México: Confianza del Consumidor

TUESDAY 07:

Euro-Zone: GDP

United Kingdom: GDP Estimate;

México: Indicadores Compuesto y Adelantado

Australia: RBA Rate Decision;

WEDNESDAY 08:

United States: FED Rate Decision Minutes;

Germany: Trade Balance;

México: Balanza Comercial;

THURSDAY 09:

United States: Trade Balance

Japan: BOJ Rate Minutes;

Euro-Zone: ECB Monthly Report

Germany; Industrial Production

Canada; Unemployment Rate

United Kingdom: Rate Decision

Switzerland: Unemployment Rate

Australia: Unemployment Rate

FRIDAY 10:

France: Industrial Production

SATURDAY 11:

SUNDAY 12:

---------º---------

US ECONOMY THIS WEEK...GULP! (Agenda April 06 -- April 10, 2009)

Trade Gap Probably Held at Six-Year Low: U.S. Economy Preview - Bloomberg.com: "Trade Gap Probably Held at Six-Year Low: U.S. Economy Preview"