Created in 2007 to give you a timely warning about the causes and consequences of the next global financial crisis since 1997, through the exposition of fundamental events analysis. ---(Tuesday Through Thursday Updates: 3 p.m. México City; 4 p.m. NY)---


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TODAY'S "TOP TEN " CRISIS EVENTS
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samedi, janvier 31, 2009

6 BANK FAILURES + 25 LAST YEAR!

Bloomberg.com:
Worldwide
: "Florida, Maryland, Utah Banks Shut as Financial Crisis Deepens"

STIGLITZ VS "BAD BANK" PLAN, GURRIA FOR IT!

Bloomberg.com:
Worldwide
: "Stiglitz Criticizes Bad Bank Plan as Swapping ‘Cash for Trash’"

WORLD CRISIS: --WEEKLY WRAP-UP--

MY SNAPSHOT,  PLAIN-LANGUAGE ASSESSMENT OF LAST WEEK’S OUTSTANDING ECONOMIC EVENTS SHAPING OUR WORLD:

SUMMARY:

  1. US House approved Obama’s $819 b stimulus packageNo Republicans voted for it. Now the Senate’s turn.  
  2. Iran’s Ahmadinejad, responded to Mr Obama extending hand by angrily calling for an apology.  
  3. World Economic Forum began in Davos Switzerland in a, Depressing global crisis environment. Russia and China attacked the West, particularly the US for all the trouble.
  4. Iceland’s government became the first to fallas a result of the financial crash. Early election in May. 
  5. Russia won’t deploy any missiles in Kaliningrad? Hopes Obama to delay missiles in Poland, Czech Rep.
  6. Bolivia backed a new (President Morales’) polemic constitution but the majority in 4 rich “autonomous” departments rejected it. Political conflict will continue!    
  7. The International Labor Organization  2009 forecast considered the unemployed higher by 18m than in 2007, “worst-case scenario” 50m more. 
  8. IMF-09 world worst 1945. GDP 0.5%, from 2.2% last Nov.US -1.6%, Euro -2%, Japan -2.6%.UK-2.8%.
  9. Banking System troubles continued:BOFA gov. aid. Nomura’s qly loss $3.7 b biggest since 2001 on Lehman Europe, Asia, Iceland,Madoff. Santander to recompense $1.8 b. 1º on Maddoff. ING’s CEO resigned.qly loss gov aid.
  10. FED kept rates at 0-0.25%. Will buy long-term government bonds if necessary.
  11. US Bad economic news continued: January January Consumer Confidence fell to 37.7, new low since 1967. House Prices also fell -18.2% year-to-Nov, Existing Home Sales+6.5% Dec. (Good News?). 
  12. Britain’s Growth fell by 1.5% 4th quarter of 2008, preliminary estimate. It was 1.8% lower than a year earlier. 
  13. United States Growth fell and Japan’s Industrial Production slumped.

To know more about these subjects please refer to the corresponding articles posted on this “blog”

The purpose of this basic report is simply to reassert the relevance of  what you have already witnessed during the last 5 days and to inform you of anything that you could have missed. Of course, I’ll be always grateful for letting me know of those crisis-related happenings I  failed to notice myself.

Last Week:

  1. USA 44th President swore in!
  2. Israel, Hamas ceasefire held up!
  3. China growth rate fell to 6.8% in the year to the 4th  quarter,after attaining 9%  in the 3th q.  It was the slowest GDP growth in 7 years.  It grew 9% 2008 and 13% in 2007 when it became the 3th largest world economy. Some say China is already in recession. Big risk of workers protests getting out of control!
  4. Spain, Portugal ratings were downgraded by S&P’s as previously was Greece’s.
  5. Brazil, Canada and Hungary were the latest to join the club of  interest rate cutting nations to fight their economic slowdowns.
  6. Banking troubles continued,  with Bank of America (1st quarterly loss in 17 years), Citigroup (4th quarter net loss of 8.3 b), UK Banking System to get more aid from Government. RBS falling 67% on losses. Denmark and Irish Banks problems continued.
  7. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed below the 8,000 point for the first time since last November.
  8. US Consumer Inflation -0.7% Dec, -1.7% Nov. Annual +0.1%.  Core was still +1.8%.
  9. The European Commission 2009 Economic forecasts: Euro Zone; -1.9%.  Germany -2.3%, France -1.8%, Spain & Italy -2%. Ireland. -5%. Euro Budget Deficit to be  4% of GDP. Unemployment Rate to get to 10% in 2010.
  10. United Kingdom Unemployment Rate was 6.1% in the 3 mths to Nov,  the previous 3 months  5.7%. Unemployment benefit claims were the highest since 1991. Consumer Inflation slowed  down  from 4.1% to 3.1% in December.

CONCLUSSION: 

It was an awful week which continued to reflect the severity of this Global Crisis. China’s depressing GDP economic data (worse than expected) may mean It is already in a recession (please read this blog’s corresponding article). In our globalised world, we can expect a very negative economic feedback to many, many countries as a side-effect of this nation’s slowdown. Last but not least, the sad welcome to Barack Obama from the financial markets (the inauguration day) does not show any approaching general confidence. The US stocks slumped dramatically that session and the DJIA closed below the 8,000 points for the 1st time since late november.   

US ECONOMY MAY DETERIORATE FURTHER!

Bloomberg.com:
Worldwide
: "U.S. Economy May Keep Sliding After Shrinking Most Since 1982"

vendredi, janvier 30, 2009

MEXICAN PESO FALL STUNS EVERYONE!

Bloomberg.com:
Latin America
: "Mexico’s Peso Stuns UBS With Biggest Drop Since 1995 (Update3)"

MÉXICO: PRÓXIMA SEMANA ¿QUÉ PASARÁ?

MERCADOS MEXICANOS-Atentos a cifras econ�micas en EEUU
| Negocios
| Reuters
: "MERCADOS MEXICANOS-Atentos a cifras econ�micas en EEUU"

MÉXICO: ¿CÓMO VA HOY?..Viernes, enero 30, 2009

MERCADOS MEXICANOS-�Qu�dicen los analistas? 30 de enero
| Titulares
| Reuters
: "MERCADOS MEXICANOS-�Qu�dicen los analistas? 30 de enero"

STRONG POUND...WEAK EURO?....WHAT?

Bloomberg.com:
Currencies
: "Pound Posts Record Monthly Gain Against Euro as Mortgages Rise"

RUBLE IN TROUBLE!

Bloomberg.com:
Currencies
: "Russia Vows to Defend Ruble as Speculators Push to Break Target"

US ECONOMY FALLS FASTEST SINCE 1982!

Bloomberg.com:
Worldwide
: "U.S. Economy: GDP Shrinks at Fastest Pace Since 1982 (Update1)"

ASIA CURRENCY POOL TO DEFEND CURRENCIES!..WHAT?

Bloomberg.com:
Economy
: "Asian Ministers Said to Plan February Meeting on Currency Pool"

EUROPE INFLATION FALLS, UNEMPLOYMENT UP!...DEFLATION RISK UP TOO?

Bloomberg.com:
Economy
: "European Inflation Rate Falls, Unemployment Increases (Update1)"

ZONE EURO: LE CHÔMAGE ATTEINT 8%!

Zone euro : le ch�mage atteint 8 % en d�cembre - Economie - Le Monde.fr: "Zone euro : le ch�mage atteint 8 % en d�cembre"

RUBLE REJECTION AFTER PUTIN SPEECH!

Bloomberg.com:
Currencies
: "Investors Say Nyet to Putin’s Ruble After ‘Absurd’ Davos Speech"

JAPAN'S WORST RECESSION?..PRODUCTION SLUMPS, JOBLESS UP!

Bloomberg.com:
Worldwide
: "Japan Heads for Worst Postwar Slump as Output Tumbles (Update2)"

jeudi, janvier 29, 2009

EURO IN DANGER!..."SOROS"

Bloomberg.com:
Currencies
: "Soros Says Euro in Danger If EU Fails to Act, Standard Reports"

UN NOUVEAU BRETTON-WOODS? NO, WE CAN'T!

D�CHIFFRAGES - Blog LeMonde.fr: "Un nouveau Bretton-Woods ? No, we can’t!"

EURO: LA GRÈCE: TALON D'ACHILLE?

La Gr�ce est le talon d'Achille de la zone euro - L'�conomie en crise - Le Monde.fr: "La Gr�ce est le talon d'Achille de la zone euro"

¿LATINOAMÉRICA, VS CAPITALISMO?..MAYBE SO!

Cuatro l�deres sudamericanos arremeten contra capitalismo
| Titulares
| Reuters
: "Cuatro l�deres sudamericanos arremeten contra capitalismo"

¿LATINOAMÉRICA VS CAPITALISMO?...KIND OF!

Cuatro l�deres sudamericanos arremeten contra capitalismo
| Titulares
| Reuters
: "Cuatro l�deres sudamericanos arremeten contra capitalismo"

MÉXICO ¿CÓMO VA HOY?...Jueves, enero 29, 2009

MERCADOS MEXICANOS-�Qu�dicen los analistas? 29 de enero
| Titulares
| Reuters
: "MERCADOS MEXICANOS-�Qu�dicen los analistas? 29 de enero"

US NEW HOME SALES, DURABLE GOODS ORDERS TUMBLE!

Bloomberg.com:
Worldwide
: "U.S. Economy: Sales of New Homes, Durable Goods Orders Tumble"

LES CHÔMEURS DANS LE MONDE: 190 + 51 MILLIONS?

Le nombre de ch�meurs pourrait augmenter de 51 millions dans le monde - Economie - Le Monde.fr: "Le nombre de ch�meurs pourrait augmenter de 51 millions dans le monde"

OBAMA PLAN PASSED BY HOUSE: NO REPUBLICAN VOTES!..NOW THE SENATE!

Bloomberg.com:
Worldwide
: "House Vote Sends Obama’s $819 Billion Stimulus Plan to Senate"

US FED KEPT RATE AND IS READY TO BUY TREASURIES!..WOW! (UPDATE 5)

Bloomberg.com:
News
: "Fed Keeps Rate Near Zero, Is Ready to Buy Treasuries (Update5)"

US FED WARNS OF DEFLATION RISK!

Bloomberg.com:
Worldwide
: "Fed Warns of Global Slowdown That Adds to U.S. Deflation Risk"

mercredi, janvier 28, 2009

IMF: EURO AT RISK?

UPDATE 3-IMF warns on euro zone stability risk, cash reserves
| Markets
| US Markets
| Reuters
: "UPDATE 3-IMF warns on euro zone stability risk, cash reserves"

FMI: EURO....EN DOUTE?

La croissance mondiale tombera � 0,5 % cette ann�e, selon le FMI - Economie - Le Monde.fr: "La croissance mondiale tombera �0,5 % cette ann�e, selon le FMI"

LA CROISSANCE MONDIALE TOMBERA À 0.5%!..GULP!

La croissance mondiale tombera � 0,5 % cette ann�e, selon le FMI - Economie - Le Monde.fr: "La croissance mondiale tombera �0,5 % cette ann�e, selon le FMI"

MÉXICO..¿CÓMO VA HOY?...Miércoles, enero 28, 2009

MERCADOS MEXICANOS-�Qu�dicen los analistas? 28 de enero
| Titulares
| Reuters
: "MERCADOS MEXICANOS-�Qu�dicen los analistas? 28 de enero"

KEEP THE BANKING SYSTEM... PRIVATE!..YES!

Bloomberg.com:
Worldwide
: "Geithner Says ‘Range of Options’ Considered for Banks (Update2)"

SHOULD OBAMA APOLOGIZE TO IRAN?

Bloomberg.com:
Worldwide
: "Ahmadinejad Urges Obama to Apologize for ‘Crimes’ (Update1)"

OBAMA'S "BAD BANK" TO SPUR LENDING!...REALLY?

Bloomberg.com:
Worldwide
: "FDIC May Run ‘Bad Bank’ in Obama Plan to Remove Toxic Assets"

OBAMA'S BROADBAND PLAN DISAPPOINTS!

Bloomberg.com:
Exclusive
: "Obama’s Broadband Plan Disappoints"

US FED ZERO-RATE COMPLICATES BERNANKE'S JOB!

Bloomberg.com:
Worldwide
: "Fed Shift Leaves Experts Blind, Complicates Central Bank’s Job"

DAVOS....EN PLEIN BROUILLARD!

Le Forum �conomique de Davos en plein brouillard, par Fr�d�ric Lema�tre - Opinions - Le Monde.fr: "Le Forum �conomique de Davos en plein brouillard, par Fr�d�ric Lema�tre"

RUSSIA'S PUTIN, CHINA'S WEN:.."COCKY" NO MORE?..DAVOS!

Bloomberg.com:
Currencies
: "Putin and Wen, ‘Cocky’ No More, Pay Davos Price for Recession"

mardi, janvier 27, 2009

LA CRISE POURRAIT COûTER $3,600 MILLIARDS AUS BANQUES!...GULP!

La crise financi�re pourrait co�ter 3 600 milliards de dollars aux banques - Finances - Le Monde.fr: "La crise financi�re pourrait co�ter 3 600 milliards de dollars aux banques"

MÉXICO: ..¿CÓMO VA HOY?..Martes, enero 27, 2009

MERCADOS MEXICANOS-�Qu�dicen los analistas? 27 de enero
| Titulares
| Reuters
: "MERCADOS MEXICANOS-�Qu�dicen los analistas? 27 de enero"

MEXICO 2009: ...¿RECESIÓN CON INFLACIÓN?...GREAT!

ACTUALIZA 5-Econom�a mexicana se contraer�a en 2009: b.central
| Titulares
| Reuters
: "ACTUALIZA 5-Econom�a mexicana se contraer�a en 2009: b.central"

UKRAINE'S ECONOMIC-POLITICAL ABYSS?

Bloomberg.com:
Exclusive
: "Ukraine Stares Into an Economic-Political ‘Abyss’ (Update2)"

CURRENCY RESERVES NOT ENOUGH TO PROTECT CURRENCIES!..(UPDATE 2)

Bloomberg.com:
Currencies

HIGHEST US RATES IN GENERATION CONFRONT EVERYONE WITHOUT FED FUNDS!

Bloomberg.com:
Economy
: "Highest Rates in Generation Confront Everyone Without Fed Funds"

SOUTH AFRICA IN RECESSION SOON TOO?

Bloomberg.com:
Africa
: "South African Economic Gauge Sinks by Record, Business Day Says"

ZIMBABWE CONTINUED POLITICAL TURMOIL!..CHOLERA CRISIS!

Bloomberg.com:
Worldwide
: "Zimbabwe Opposition Criticizes Summit Announcement of Agreement"

CURRENCY RESERVES NOT ENOUGH TO PROTECT CURRENCIES!..(UPDATE 1)

Bloomberg.com:
Currencies
: "Noyer Says Reserves No Longer Enough to Protect Currencies"

NOMURA'S LOSS, LOSS, LOSS, LOSS!...RECORD 4 TIMES?

Bloomberg.com:
Worldwide
: "Nomura Posts Record Fourth Straight Quarterly Loss (Update1)"

lundi, janvier 26, 2009

LA CRISE MONDIALE FRAPPE LE BRÉSIL!

Le recul de l'activit�mondiale et la baisse des mati�res premi�res frappent le Br�sil - L'�conomie en crise - Le Monde.fr: "Le recul de l'activit�mondiale et la baisse des mati�res premi�res frappent le Br�sil"

MÉXICO ¿CÓMO VA HOY?...Lunes, enero 26, 2009

MERCADOS MEXICANOS-�Qu�dicen los analistas? 26 de enero
| Titulares
| Reuters
: "MERCADOS MEXICANOS-�Qu�dicen los analistas? 26 de enero"

ORO CIERRA EN MÁS DE $900!...WHAT?

ACTUALIZA 2-Oro cierra a m�s de 900 dlr/onza por compras refugio
| Titulares
| Reuters
: "ACTUALIZA 2-Oro cierra a m�s de 900 dlr/onza por compras refugio"

CURRENCIES NOT ENOUGH TO DEFEND CURRENCIES!..RIGHT!

Bloomberg.com:
Currencies
: "Noyer Says Reserves No Longer Enough to Protect Currencies"

US HOME SALES, LEADING INDICATORS UP!...WEIRD?

Bloomberg.com:
Worldwide
: "U.S. Economy: Home Sales, Leading Indicators Unexpectedly Rise"

POUND PLUNGE MAY FORCE BROWN INTO WEIRD MOVES!

Bloomberg.com:
Worldwide
: "Pound Plunge May Push U.K.’s Brown Off Currency Fence (Update1)"

MÉXICO...¿QUÉ VA A PASAR ESTA SEMANA?

MERCADOS MEXICANOS-Bolsa seguir�a vol�til atenta a reportes EEUU
| Negocios
| Reuters
: "MERCADOS MEXICANOS-Bolsa seguir�a vol�til atenta a reportes EEUU"

LE PÉTROLE...ET APRÈS?

Le p�trole et apr�s ? - Economie - Le Monde.fr: "Le p�trole et apr�s ?"

OBAMA DÉCLARE LA GUERRE MONÉTAIRE À LA CHINE!

Barack Obama d�clare la guerre mon�taire �la Chine - Economie - Le Monde.fr: "Barack Obama d�clare la guerre mon�taire �la Chine"

EURO, POUND WEAKEN ON POSSIBLE RATE CUTS NEXT WEEK!

Bloomberg.com:
Worldwide
: "Euro, Pound Weaken on Speculation European Rates Will Decline"

US COMPANIES TO CUT MORE JOBS!

Bloomberg.com:
Worldwide
: "Companies in U.S. to Slash More Jobs, Business Economists Say"

US GROWING RESCUE PLAN!..GEITHNER WORKING HARD!

Bloomberg.com:
Worldwide
: "Geithner to Press Mortgage, Bank Relief in Growing Rescue Plan"

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Analyses Back-up: Check: PESO, EURO; JAPAN, YEN; CHINA, YUAN; STERLING, U.K.; DOLLAR, UNITED STATES

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